Welcome back, Deep Leaguers! As we approach the 20th game of the season, the Dodgers lead the NL, and the Guardians and Twins are tied for the AL lead. Our top five scoring teams so far are the Astros, Dodgers, Twins, Braves, and Nationals. While some of these teams were expected to perform well, the Nationals and Twins have not been the streaming targets we might have hoped for. It's a good idea to take a step back and reassess team performance every now and then to ensure our internal calibrations stay on track. Let's dive into the risers and fallers of Week 4.
Fallers
Alex Freeland
Alex Freeland, a second baseman, third baseman, and shortstop for the Los Angeles Dodgers, has not lived up to expectations. Despite not having a clear path to playing time, he faced stiff competition from Tommy Edman, Miguel Rojas, and Hyeseong Kim. Freeland's performance has been underwhelming, with a .220/.289/.341 slash line and a single home run. His underlying rates, however, paint a rosier picture, with a 92.7 MPH exit velocity, a 44% hard hit rate, a 21% chase rate, and an 8% walk rate. But he's still whiffing too much (30%) and striking out in over 31% of his at bats. With Mookie Betts and Tommy Edman returning from the IL, Freeland's playing time is uncertain, and he's not doing enough to secure the second base gig.
Spencer Steer
Spencer Steer, a first baseman and outfielder for the Cincinnati Reds, has provided fantasy managers and the team with at least 20 home runs and 75 RBI per season for the last three years. However, his early season performance has been disappointing, with a .176/.218/.353 slash line. His exit velocity is low at 87.4 MPH, but his barrel rate is nearly 17%, which is impressive. However, his walk and strikeout rates are concerning, with a 5.5% walk rate and a 29% strikeout rate. The Reds have already made a move by optioning Noelvi Marte and calling up Rece Hinds, who has been crushing AAA with a .354/.475/.771 line. Steer's playing time is not guaranteed, and he needs to improve his performance to keep his spot in the lineup.
Marcell Ozuna
Marcell Ozuna, a utility player for the Pittsburgh Pirates, has struggled in his early season. Despite signing a 12 million dollar free agent contract, he has only three hits, none of which are home runs, doubles, or have driven in any runs. His bat speed is up, and his whiff rate is barely up, but his barrel rate has plummeted from 15% to 3%. His ground ball and line drive rates have dropped, and his pop up rate has jumped to 22.6%. Ozuna's performance is not living up to expectations, and it's unlikely he'll perform near his previous levels. The Pirates are unlikely to give up on him before the end of April, but his age and performance make it difficult to see him performing well.
Risers
Dominic Smith
Dominic Smith, a 30-year-old first baseman, has had a small resurgence with the Atlanta Braves. He's showing more aggression at the plate, with a .353/.378/.647 line, three home runs, and 11 RBI. His walk rate is the lowest of his career, and his chase rate is the highest, but he's still making great contact with a 17.3% whiff rate. His average exit velocity is over 90 MPH, and he's smacking line drives at his highest rate since 2020. Smith's performance is encouraging, and he could get back to being a 20 homer, .275 batting average, 70+ RBI corner infield option.
Brandon Marsh
Brandon Marsh, an outfielder for the Philadelphia Phillies, is giving fantasy managers great ratios with a .304/.333/.482 line. He's homered twice and stolen two bases over his first 15 games, and his seven runs scored and 11 RBI look more in line with his statistics. His underlying numbers are also encouraging, with a whiff rate below 22%, a K rate of 23%, a hard hit rate over 46%, and an exit velocity holding over 90 MPH. Marsh's performance is promising, and he could post better run and RBI totals if he continues to bat in the middle third of the lineup.
Jose Fernandez
Jose Fernandez, a first baseman and shortstop for the Arizona Diamondbacks, made a big splash with two home runs in his debut. However, his performance has since dipped, with a .220/.289/.341 slash line. His average exit velocity is just over 85 MPH, his barrel rate is below average, and his chase rate is near the league's bottom. His K rate is not especially bad, but his 0% walk rate is concerning. Fernandez's best tool is his elite sprint speed, but he's stolen just one base in one attempt this year. His minor league track record is not impressive, and he could benefit from more time at AAA. His performance so far is impressive, but it's uncertain if he'll continue to succeed in the majors.
